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DNC Memo: Early State Results Bode Well for Democrats, Republicans in State of Denial

2/24/16

MEMO

To:                      Interested Parties

From:                 Luis Miranda, Communications Director, Democratic National Committee

RE:                   Early State Results Bode Well for Democrats, Republicans in State of Denial

Ahead of tonight’s Republican Town Hall on the Fox News Channel in which all of the remaining candidates are expected to participate except for the only one winning, Donald Trump, it’s important to put the current state of the race into context. After Nevada’s GOP caucuses it’s clear Donald Trump is well on his way to the Republican nomination, and that the Republican Party has deep and structural problems heading into the general election. While we can expect the losers of Tuesday’s contest to stay in the race, it’s widely recognized that their paths to the nomination have been cut off as a result of falling to Trump in the last three states.

Trump Far Ahead in Delegate Count

Trump’s Nevada win means he has taken 3 out of 4 of the GOP’s primary contests, and earned the vast majority of their delegates. After four state contests, with caucuses in Iowa and Nevada and primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Trump has won 81 of 129 delegates – 63% of the total.

  • Donald Trump has almost five times more delegates than Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.

Turnout Reveals Structural Challenge for Republicans

Republicans have had a historically large primary field, with as many as 17 candidates competing throughout 2015 and nearly a dozen making it to the First in the Nation Iowa caucuses. Eight Republicans made it to New Hampshire, six made it to South Carolina, and five competed in Nevada yesterday. While turnout for Republicans in these early contests has increased over their previous baseline, it has NOT matched the level of spending or the size of their field. Consider that Republican establishment favorite Jeb Bush and his Super PAC spent more than $100 million and yet only turned out 2.8% of caucus-goers in Iowa, 11% of voters in New Hampshire, and 7.8% of voters in South Carolina.

Similarly, the turnout for Republicans has been close to that of Democrats, who had three candidates heading into Iowa, and less in Nevada.

  • The 80,000 Democrats turned out to caucus across Nevada by just TWO Democrats was more than the 75,000      Republicans who were turned out by SIX Republicans.
  • In New Hampshire TWO Democrats turned out 247,000 voters, while EIGHT Republicans turned out just 279,000.
  • And in Iowa TWO Democrats turned out nearly as many caucus-goers as ELEVEN Republicans.

Nevada’s results have more bad news for the Republicans trying to defeat their front-runner. Trump won decisively, winning among all groups, all ages, and even defeating his two Cuban-American opponents among Hispanics in the state where they’ve made up the largest share of the voting population to date. That’s a particularly strong rebuke for Marco Rubio, who has deep family ties in the state and spent part of his childhood there. In fact, while Cruz and Rubio have tried to spin their losses into wins, when combined they received fewer votes in Nevada than Donald Trump in Cruz’s third straight loss and Rubio’s fourth. Cruz and Rubio’s spin is beginning to be widely mocked, which you can see in some of the commentary around yesterday’s caucuses. CNN’s Anderson Cooper, for example, asked his panel if there was a state where Rubio has an advantage, and the entire panel replied with a ‘no.’ As the video makes clear, the only state in which Rubio might have a lead in, is a state of denial.

 

WATCH

 

Turnout Means Data

So now that Republicans turned out 75,000 voters in Nevada for the primaries, they’ll be able to easily engage them in the general election, right?

No.

Republicans have a fragmented approach to data and analytics. Their campaigns and their party don’t share voter file data with their national and state parties in the way Democrats have perfected over more than a decade. That means that the losers take their ball and go home.

By contrast, Democrats are using a state of the art national voter file program that is in use by our primary campaigns, our state parties and down ballot candidates. That means that every single door that our candidates have knocked on, every single phone call their volunteers have made, and every voter contact they’ve made at a town hall or county fair is now a part of our national database and will bolster the campaign of whoever emerges as our nominee.

As important, we’ve built a national digital infrastructure that has helped state parties improve on everything they did in 2008, such as building online caucus location finders. The Nevada Democratic Party pre-registered more than 31,000 voters for their precinct caucus, and even long lines were resolved quickly because of all of the preparation the party did to streamline the process.

Fundraising Reflects Energy for Democrats

Fundraising, including from grassroots donors, is reflecting that same dynamic reflective of positive energy on the Democratic side. Our two candidates raised $36.2 million in January while their six Republican counterparts raised just $25.1 million.

As important, Democrats have garnered more than 4 million individual contributions, an unprecedented figure at this point in a campaign season.

Bottom Line

What is clearly evident from the early states so far, is that the Democratic candidates are generating excitement without the need for a vulgar reality TV star, insults, dirty tricks, or fear tactics. They’re promising to build on a record that has taken our country over the last 7 years from losing 800,000 jobs a month as George W. Bush left office, to gaining 14 million new jobs over a record 71-straight months of private sector job growth.

Our Democratic candidates in this race have the right priorities — priorities that match the values, hopes and dreams of the American people. That’s why we’re going to win in November. 

 

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